
MoatsA durability judgment can be wrong
→Berkshire’s 2007 chairman’s letter contrasts See’s favorable economics with businesses requiring more reinvestment, and acknowledges the mistaken Dexter assessment. The actor is making capital-allocation judgments about whether an attractive business can preserve earnings without repeatedly consuming the proceeds. The acknowledged error is consequential: a strong-looking position at purchase did not make durability certain.
The decision is to distinguish current appeal from resistance to an economically meaningful alternative. A name, a route or favorable margins can support a hypothesis, but the buyer must examine customer choice, rivals’ feasible responses and the capital required to remain competitive. The letter supplies management’s assessment, not independent proof of permanence. A rival explanation for strong returns is a favorable period or execution rather than a structural defense. The Dexter contrast prevents a success-only account: the same evaluator can misjudge how customer preference and competition will evolve. Review the mechanism and the replacement path rather than turning a historical judgment into a permanent company label.